Archive for April 2012
The market, in general, has been phenomenal! Today, the PSEi closed to a new high (once again) at 5,218.97, with an intra-day high of 5,247.14. The past two days have indeed been a crazy ride especially for those of us who have been holding on to some oil and mining stocks, oil more specifically.
OV, a special favorite, has finally started to mOVe and just drilled through the 0.06/sh mark. Yes, there is the possibility that it could just be riding coattails, especially with the PXP story topping the bulletin these days; however, I’m also quite convinced that there’s a more compelling reason:
The Philodrill Corporation is pleased to announce that production from the Galoc Field has re-started on April 2, 2012 following a planned field and facilities shutdown for refurbishment of the floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) vessel “Rubicon Intrepid”. The field is now producing at a stabilized average rate of about 6,300 barrels of oil per day from the two Galoc wells. – http://www.philodrill.com, as of April 11, 2012
Be that as it may, PXP or no PXP, there is a story.
Anyway, looking at its chart, the general trend looks healthy, with the price action still hovering above the Ichimoku cloud, the conversion line leading the base, and the Senkou A poising over Senkou B. Also, the ADX is around 38.7 with a +DI of 40.9 and a -DI of 10.9; this suggests a strong trend toward the more positive direction. On the other hand, its GMMAs evince that OV’s long-term investors still maintain a strong conviction on its valuation and that its short-term investors have somehow gotten a buzz — this could most probably be attributed to the snowballing of PXP. Notice also the volume increase. However, a word of caution to short-term investors: the current candlestick pattern is already showing some indecision among traders. Support levels at 0.058, 0.056, and 0.054. If it goes down, well, I’d consider it an opportunity to start toying with it, if you still haven’t.
Finally, some wise adage from WB: “If you expect to continue to purchase stocks throughout your life, you should welcome price declines as a way to add stocks more cheaply to your portfolio.“
I almost fell off my seat when I saw OV hit and then quickly went past the 0.056/sh mark. I was just grumbling about how thick the padding was at 0.055/sh and then when I hit refresh… I was agog — 0.059/sh! Finally! I believe that this is just the beginning. FirstMetroSec and COL have placed a FV on OV at 0.073 and 0.081, respectively. In fact, FirstMetroSec’s trading plan dated April 04, 2012 is to “HOLD or BUY ON BREAKOUT: P0.055 to P0.056.”
In other news, my other favorite stock MPI has been true to its promise. Yesterday, I accumulated a good chunk with an average EP of 4.20-ish/sh; it’s already 4.51/sh as of this writing. LCB and MAB have also started to show some movement. Again… Finally! This is due to the positive outlook on the E.O., which is expected to be released very, very soon.
Finally, and more importantly, “NEW HIGH AS OF 12NN 25 Apr 2012: PSEi 5,221.61 up by 52.01 pts or 1.0%; Intra-day high: 5,223.71.”
Yes, I am so loving the new look of COL’s online trading platform. Unfortunately, there have been a lot of complaints with regard to the quality of performance of this new platform this morning. Friends who were eager to watch the market were very frustrated with the glitches… the irksome delays. I just hope that they would fix it soon… like tomorrow. It did work though when I accessed it earlier but it was unusually slow.
Anyway, below (image) are a few of my favorite stocks these days. I’m happy that MPI is getting a bit cheaper, a very good opportunity for those of us who want to take advantage of the PPP initiated by the government. First support is at 4.247/sh, then at 4.223/sh. I’m a VERY willing buyer below 4.20/sh, and planning to go long on this stock. It’s currently trading at 18.7X P/E.
We reiterate our BUY rating on MPI with FV estimate of Php4.67/sh based on SOTP valuation. We expect MPI to be a major beneficiary of the government’s PPP initiatives given its focus on infrastructure and its strong financial capabilities. – COL
On the other hand, I have been accumulating ORE shares since the year began. I still believe that it’s a buy within the range. Although, ORE’s chart seems to suggest that it’s slowly losing steam, at least in the short term. For one, the short-term GMMA is getting narrower and narrower. Moreover, the MACD currently lies below the 9-d signal. First support is at 7.871/sh. It could get cheaper. Try to bottom-fish.
In other news, I checked the transactions made by Broker 209 today. It did accumulate around 40M MEG shares with an average buy of 2.0957/sh.:)
It might also be interesting to note that Macquarie Securities accumulated around 177M OV shares at an average buy value of 0.053/sh today. Most of you who have been following the blog know that I have been
very long on OV; and, I never really fail to nibble some more shares every time it dips below 0.053/sh. I really believe in this exploration company. For one, it’s currently trading at only 8.88X P/E; note that on the average, industry peers trade at an average of 22X. A caveat: the Galoc Oil Field’s approximated production life is only capped at six years. This means that profits would end once it halts production. On a lighter note, according to COL’s most recent Company Report on OV, “successful exploration of onshore Mindoro and offshore Palawan are necessary to ensure sustainability of OV’s profitability in the longer term.”
** Keeping my fingers crossed for MAB and LCB, the EO will be out very, very soon.
What do you think?
I’ve been receiving quite a handful of queries about investing in mutual funds (MF). In my last post on MFs, I said that “if you want to have equity exposure (which you should) and yet do not want to go mental with all those stock charts and disclosures, I strongly urge investing in mutual funds.”
Some of the FAQs I received that I think are quite relevant especially for those of you who are very keen on investing in MFs are:
- What type of MF is right for me?
Well, it depends on your risk apetite. Basically, there are four types of MF: equity (essentially the stocks), balanced, bond and money market funds. The bond and money market funds are for the more conservative investors since they fend for capital preservation. For instance, the bonds funds invest in… bonds, which include both T bills that are issued by the government and commercial papers issued by established companies in the country. On the other hand, equity funds are more aggressive in terms of growth — investing in the PSE. When you’re invested in equity funds you are also invested in the stock market (I can so hear myself saying, “you don’t say?”). Finally, as the name implies, a balanced fund is where you are invested in both bonds and stocks. Given the current performance of the Philippine market and its potential, I would definitely go for either the equity fund or the balanced fund.
- Which MF company should I invest in?
According to the PIFA (Philippine Investment Funds Association), there are 30 MFs in the country that are invested in Peso securities (Equity: 8; Balanced: 7; Bonds: 10; Money Market: 5). Since I’m only recommending either the equity fund or the balanced fund, let’s just look at the performances of the different funds in those sectors as reported by the PIFA.
STOCK FUNDS (as of 1Q of 2012, 4/18/2012)
YTD Return (%) 1 yr. (%) 3 yr. (%) 5 yr. (%) Philam Strategic Growth Fund, Inc. 23.45 23.14% 37.82% 13.91% Philippine Stock Index Fund Corp. 20.33 22.53% 35.5% 9.59% First Metro Save and Learn Equity Fund,Inc. 19.16 28.31% 43.21% 15.93% Philequity Fund, Inc. 18.50 22.17% 41.03% 14.73% Sun Life Prosperity Phil. Equity Fund,
17.48 14.62% 30.95% 10.37% ATRKE Equity Opportunity Fund, Inc. 17.04 14.85% 31.77% 8.15% Philequity PSE Index Fund Inc. 15.90 21.81% 34.69% 12.7% United Fund, Inc. 7.46 3.75% 14.53% 7.04%
BALANCED FUNDS (as of 1Q of 2012, 4/18/2012)
YTD Return (%) 1 yr. (%) 3 yr. (%) 5 yr. (%) ALFM Growth Fund, Inc. 24.55% 24.89% 42.13% n.a. GSIS Mutual Fund, Inc. 22.29% 20.08% 31.95% 13.07% Philam Fund, Inc. 21.9% 22.56% 32.7% 12.98% Bahay Pari Solidaritas Fund, Inc. 19.95% 18.63% n.a. n.a. NCM Mutual Fund of the Phils., Inc 19.56% 21.31% n.a. n.a. First Metro Save and Learn Balanced Fund,Inc. 17.92% 26.67% 39.83% n.a. ATRKE Philippine Balanced Fund, Inc. 13.34% 12.38% 21.86% 6.35% Optima Balanced Fund, Inc. 12.83% 18.14% 21.01% 8.89% Sun Life Prosperity Balanced Fund, Inc. 12.81% 11.89% 20.97% 8.91%
Another crisp all-time high (both intraday and closing) for the PSEi yesterday when the index broke the 5,200 level — continuing a 5-day rally. The YTD increase is now up by an impressive +20.08%. In the top 5 net foreign sells was PCOR (P28.56M), I have been waiting for it to dip a wee bit more, hoping to nibble some more of it. On the other hand, ORE closed in the red at 7.97/sh — a good opportunity to have some slice of it, you should order some. I would be very happy to see it dip below 7.90/sh before it rallies once again. I’m quite confident with ORE especially with the expected increase in our nickel-ore production. On a more different note, the PPP seems to be getting more and more pepped up. I will be getting a load of DMC and MPI‘s charts in the days to come.
To those of you who are wondering about the plight of our mining stocks, the new mining policy will be out soon. Things will get a bit more exciting for us come May. See the news here.