Archive for May 2012
What’s cookin’? OIL
OIL
The price of oil rose due to at least two reasons, which were enumerated in an article that was published in Bloomberg.com today. According to the report, the rise in oil is due to (1) the recently augmented US consumer confidence, and (2) the fact that the UN agency has verified an increased output of enriched uranium for Iran’s nuclear programme. Note that the price of oil was down earlier last week when Iran gave its consent to the UN to expand its atomic probings. On the other hand, the talks on the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear program have not reached a solid conclusion; stakeholders have decided to resume talks in June instead.
IMO, this news could spur some interest toward some of our local oil industries.
Energy Prices: Oil (May 25, 2012)
OV
I have reason to believe that $OV is still worth investing in. For one, Macquarie seems to be truly convinced that something is really brewing in said company. Since March 27 this year, its total investment has already amounted to around ₱232M — I bet it’s even more than that (since my account can only capture transactions from two months ago). Another reason why I think it’s worth investing in is the Galoc Phase II development, which is already in the offing with its Final Investment Decision already expected to be made in June. And of course, I’m inclined to throw in another strand — the current global sentiment on the oil market. 
Some interesting nugget from the Philodrill Corp. website:
The SC 14 Galoc Consortium is confident that the upgrading of the FPSO mooring system is expected to increase the reliability and uptime of the vessel. In addition, the new mooring system is a crucial component of infrastructure to enable the Galoc Joint Venture to move ahead with a potential Phase II development of the Galoc Field.
Already, the joint venture had commenced the detailed subsurface modeling and engineering design works in late 2011 and remain on schedule for the Final Investment Decision for the Phase II development which is due to be made around mid-2012.
History of Broker Transactions with Philodrill as of May 25, 2012.
PXP
First thing’s first, Macquarie, UBS, DBP-DAIWA, and Deutsche Regis are invested in PXP. Seeing Deutsche there in the list allows me to confer a certain level of credence in the MVP chaired oil company. Moreover, I am inclined to have a positive outlook on the company due to the on-going talks between MVP and the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC).
The recent talks in Beijing between Philex Petroleum chair Manuel Pangilinan and the state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp (CNOOC), the COL Financial research said, showed China’s strong interest in doing business in the Philippines, particularly in a major oil and gas discovery along Recto Bank. – Inquirer Global Nation
Historical Broker Transactions with PXP as of May 25, 2012.
Chart-wise, PXP is already in the overbought level with some price action happening across the upper-band of the Bollinger. It’s only rational to suspect some profit-taking in the near-term. But then again… people have bounded-rationality.
PXP Chart
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FYI: LIST OF TOP RANKING TRADING PARTICIPANTS IN THE PSE:
Top Ranking Trading Participants, PSE
A Sneak Peek: OV, ORE, MPI
OV
My favorite stock, just like most of the others listed in the PSE, has been clobbered in the last few trading days. Yes, I think it is cheap at its current price but I wouldn’t be too confident accumulating some more, unless it closes above 0.042/sh today, or better yet 0.045/sh (it could get cheaper). However, IF I were here to day-trade (if I have the time), it’d be one of the better candidates. Anyway, I am still holding on to my OV shares since I have always planned to go long on this stock. Also, looking at its historical broker transactions in the last two months somehow tells me that the story ain’t OVer yet.
OV as of 20120514
Historical broker transactions on OV in the last two months.
ORE
Even though ORE seems to be oversold at these levels, I would not be so trigger happy picking it up. The price action is way below the Ichimoku, with first support at 4.82/sh. Unless someone boots it, it could take forever vaulting over the 6.50/sh roadblock. However (again), IF I were here to day-trade (if I have the time), this would also be one of the better candidates (typing with reluctance this time). Personally, I wouldn’t touch it until I see a convincing trend reversal, or maybe, not even then.
ORE as of 20120514
Historical broker transactions on ORE in the last two months.
MPI
MPI as of 20120514
Bloodbath
Wow. It seems as if all hell broke loose in the last few days inside the PSE.
I have truly and honestly missed looking at the stock charts and updating this blog. I have been away from my hobby since my transfer last May 02. Yes, I have one exciting news: I’ve been transferred to a new department within our research agency; and I’m super happy because research (science) work just got a bit more exciting!
Anyway, I am super thankful to some traders/investors out there who never fail to give me market updates: @jwara, @AgosCapital, @genkumag, to name a few.
I don’t really want to state the obvious but right now, my portfolio is bloody red! Ah, I can only smile! What else can one do, right? Still and all, I’ve been very transparent about my opinions on most of the stocks I follow; so, followers of this blog probably already know that… my portfolio is bloody red. Am I worried? Doh. Yes, a bit (about ORE), but *not so much* (about the rest of my positions). If anything, I just feel bad that I am not very liquid these days to go bargain hunting, and bottom fishing. Although, I was able to snack on some OV and UBP shares earlier. In my opinion, the next few days would be very exciting especially for those hunting for bargain stocks.
Meanwhile, trading will be taking a backseat while I get my bearings on these new ventures at work. (Talk about perfect timing… or not..) Besides, I don’t really want to be whipsawed. And since I have not been able to engage myself in some technical analysis of late, I would really just rather wait for the market to recover.
In times like this, I just try to remember this famous WB quote:
Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market shut down for 10 years.
Happy bargain hunting!
UBP
In this post, I tackle the brewing potential of the Union Bank of the Philippines (UBP). The news concerning its 300% growth completely caught my attention; I can’t help but be intrigued. Instinctively, I checked its P/E and collected the others’ in the sector as well. Among the index stocks in the financials sector, UBP has the lowest current P/E at 3.9728X; moreover, its expected P/E by the end of the year is 10.2769X.
Financial Index: P/E
Furthermore, the bank posted a 300% growth(!) in the first three (3) months of 2012. Here’s an excerpt of the news article I came across that was posted by The Philippine Star last April 30:
UBP president and chief operating officer Victor B. Valdepenas said it is not only the bank’s highest growth recorded in a given quarter, but “it is also a third of the P6.59 billion net income recorded for the whole of 2011, and we are only in the first quarter of 2012.”
Another important thing to note is that, “net interest income rose slightly to P1.77 billion in the first quarter this year, from the P1.76 billion in the same period last year.”
Its FV? Well, people in-the-know say that ₱150 a piece is quite a conservative prognostication. 
A Brief History: Broker Transactions
Last night, I suddenly had the impulse to look into the historical transactions made by the top ranking trading participants of the PSE, namely:
- Deutsche Regis Partners, Inc. (209)
- Maybank ATR Kimeng Securities, Inc. (220)
- UBS Securities Philippines, Inc. (333)
- CLSA Philippines, Inc. (323)
- Macquarie Capital Securities Philippines, Inc. (121)
Since the bulk of the story of our fellow traders in the past week revolved around: PX, PXP, and OV, to name a few, I couldn’t help but notice Broker 121; and thought, “how about the others?”
Below is a snapshot of some of the notable (i.e. I find interesting) transactions that I have collated that were executed yesterday (April 30, 2012), focusing only on the stocks I follow.
Filtered Broker Transactions executed on April 30, 2012
On the other hand, below is a snapshot of some of the notable transactions that were executed since April 23, 2012, again, focusing only on the stocks I follow.
Filtered Broker Transactions executed from April 23-30, 2012
It is also interesting to look at the historical transactions for the whole month of April. I leave it to the reader to check them out. If you have a COL or a First Metro Sec online trading account, you could easily view these transactions.
I have particularly focused on the Top 5 trading participants because somehow I am confident that their transactions are well thought out, especially if they’re investing tens and hundreds of millions on a company. Also, I only filtered in the transactions done on the stocks I have been tracking since the beginning of the year.
Careful consideration must be exercised in interpreting the data provided. There’s more to trading transactions than meets the eye.
