Posts Tagged ‘LC’
MAB / LCB
Those who have been following the market are most probably aware of the gradual upsurge of MA/B and LC/B . I have been holding MA/B for a few months now; in fact, it’s one of my staple holdings, together with some other mining and oil stocks. It had been very lethargic, creeping in the downtrend for quite some time, which was most probably due to the previously ill-defined IRR of the mining policy. This new upward movement that we are seeing, on the other hand, may be due to the anticipation of the revised IRR of the new mining policy, which will be enforced beginning October 25. This, for one, is presumed to clarify a lot things with regard to the mining policy. A few details are discussed here and here.
I have provided the MAB chart below. Notice the three consecutive doji candlesticks beginning October 10. These doji candlesticks are significant in this particular series since they formed in a trend (downtrend). Doji candlesticks show indecision among traders and investors. If they appear in a trend, it could mean that a reversal is about to happen. I didn’t notice the doji until a friend pointed it out to me. On the other hand, what was more apparent to me was the surge in bid volumes. Bottom-line is: the chart shows a lot of optimism, as suggested by the bullish RSI, MACD, and ADX trends. Perhaps the next challenge here is for the price to puncture the Ichimoku cloud and takedown 0.062. Personally, I am not worried about whether or not this stock would rally in the short-term, I am convinced that this is fundamentally worth holding on to, especially IF our government would continue to encourage and support a well-regulated mining industry in the country.
With MA/B rising, it is safe to assume that LC/B is following the trend. On top of the seemingly positive reception of investors on the revised IRR, Lepanto Consolidated Mining is an affiliate of Manila Mining, with around 16.10% to total I/O shares.
You might also be interested in the lists of Top Buyers/Sellers of MA/B and LC/B on October 17, 2012.
Some interesting news published in the Manila Standard Today on the Galoc oil expansion. Personally, I would want to have some exposure on OV and/or OPM.
Mining and Oil
There has been a lot of good news fencing in on the Philippine market. The biggest perhaps is when Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services upgraded its ratings on the Philippines to BB plus, which is the highest since 2003. We have all been expecting this especially since the time Fitch Ratings upgraded our market to a step below investment grade in 2011. I am especially proud of this because it is symptomatic of an improved sense of optimism of investors toward our “fiscal flexibility and strong external position”. Expect more foreign inflows! Investment grade status? I firmly believe that it is not an “IF” question.. it is a matter of when. Hopefully, before PNoy ends his presidential term in 2016.
Another good news for our investors and, well, the Filipino people, is the signing of the Executive Order on mining policy changes. This is the one that we have ALL been waiting for!
The EO is expected to set guidelines that will harmonize conflicting interests of the mining industry, national and local governments and environmental groups. – Reports from Willard Cheng, ABS-CBN News; ANC
Details on the EO will be divulged on Monday. Meanwhile, let’s see how the EO would affect the performances of
our my favorite stocks MA, LC, and OV on Monday.
In other news, as of this writing, Oil Prices and Gold are in the red.
If the commodity futures will have more effect than the release of the EO on MA, LC, OV, and PX tomorrow, I would consider accumulating.
Today, I made some spunky moves with regard to my portfolio. I sold LR and more than half of my LC shares and replaced them with BHI and MA shares. I had to let go of LR to cut some losses and to not miss an opportunity with BHI. It was not an easy decision really but the charts looked pretty riveting, it’s hard to look the other way.
For one, LR still has not shown any sign of a trend reversal (although, I know that it’s still good for the long-term). Its medium TP is around ₱10/sh. If I had some more cash, I would attempt to bottom-fish some shares around ₱7.45/sh. On the other hand, BHI’s bullish trend indicators were very telling. I must admit though that I entered BHI a tad bit late, in spite of the fact that I already confirmed to some friends that it’s a buy a few trading days ago.
My short-term conservative TP for BHI is ₱0.253/sh, an easy 11.45% from my EP… IF it happens. I say ‘if’ because a part of me is feeling a bit cautious looking at the CCI and the Force Index. BHI looks like it’s already at the overbought level; moreover, its RSI is already at 86%. However (again), I received some
news rumors that its short-term TP has been placed at ₱0.40-0.50/sh. For the fundamentals, take a look at this news article. Well, right now, I don’t mind that it’s “overbought”. Look at NI; it’s been defying all technical (overbought/oversold) indicators! Rumor has it that they’re pushing it up to ₱20-25/sh. Too bad for me if it’s true because I haven’t been acquainted with the nature of the company yet. I’m not *very* speculative; I need to read more about the company before I would nibble some shares.
Now, LC (sigh). I really had to let it go (huhu) even if it’s already showing some signs of “recovery”. I am a firm believer of market sentiment and it seems like investors have let go of LC, at least for the time being.
The fears of a delay in the Far South East exploration activities has spurred selling of LC/B. actually, most of the selling was technically driven. I think that this is good for the market because we will be taking off from a lower base. Yes there has been some delays but from what I gather, it will not be a long delay at all. The project is proceeding as planned. – Gus Cosio
I would wait until it convincingly pierces through the 1.66 level before I’d revisit my old love.
Finally, MA. Need I say more? I’ve been accumulating MA since last year. From what I have gathered, it’s expected to reach ₱0.10/sh very, very soon. Its chart shows a strong bullish trend. Force Index is high, its GMMA and ADX show a strong uptrend, and its CCI demonstrates an extended rally. Really, if only it were up to its chart, it’s a no brainer.
I know I said that I was gonna hold on to my LC shares, IF I couldn’t find another stock where I could transfer the cash. I was such in a dilemma earlier because I did not want to let go of my favorite stock. It was a heart-vs-mind mess. I have known since Sunday that the trend of LC was really gonna plummet; but I didn’t follow my instinct because I was too attached. For one, its fundamentals were good; and the last time I checked, it’s still good. Why would I let go? I’ve been long on this stock. My initial “short-term” TP for LC is 2.50/sh.
Indeed, the technical indicators were already telling me to sell; instead, I decided to look the other way… until this morning. OV has been popping up on my radar since Monday. And I didn’t want to sustain any more opportunity losses. That’s when I decided to sell a significant part of my LC shares at 1.56/sh. Right now, the buyers and sellers are still very indeterminate and vague on LC. Until I find a convincing trend (up/down), I don’t think I would be getting any more. Although, I am still convinced that it’s gonna go to 2.5/sh very, very soon!
OV’s chart is telling me that it has a very convincing uptrend (see ADX, +DI > -DI). Plus, the conversion line is above the base line and the price action is above the cloud; i.e. it’s a medium bullish trend. For the fundamentals, please check this out. I nibbled some OV earlier. I plan to accumulate some more near its support at 0.032; that is, if it goes down. Furthermore, the candle stick pattern shows that the buyers dominated today’s transactions. It’s going to be a w/w situation for me, at least.
In my opinion, the gravestone doji (bearish pattern) signal was confirmed by the long black candle. I say lighten up. Support points at: S1: 5.673, S2: 5.547, and S3: 5.393.
On IP: Hindi ko pa bibilihin mukhang may ibababa pa ng konte, 1.25-1.27. Pag nagclose siya tomorrow above 1.303, I’ll buy siguro, hehe.On MARC: The uptrend indicators are quite convincing! May confirmation pa sa candlestick pattern, bullish doji star pattern.On PIP: I think it is losing steam (just a little), so, warning lang sa mga may hawak.
Oh, boy! In my previous post, I mentioned the possibility of LC going down to as low as 1.55/sh; and it did. The thing is that the price action has already gotten inside the cloud; and there is the crossover, which further reinforces the bearish trend. I guess I’m really going to hold on to this stock for the long-term now. I would cut some losses; but, as of the moment, I can’t find another stock where I could put that extra cash to compensate for the losses by March. Hence, I will just hold on to the stock knowing that eventually it will recover, hopefully in March.
I’ve earned so much from ORE already. I accumulated loads at 3.9/sh. I’ve already gained about 38% from my initial investment in ORE since the beginning of the year.
Anyway… Looking at the chart, one would notice the gravestone doji, which is indicative of a reversal. Also, the senkou-span has turned the cloud red, another indication that the uptrend is losing steam, at least in the next few trading days (1-3). I’m lightening up my holdings tomorrow, selling chunks above 6.00/sh. I say “lightening up” because I still think that the general trend is upward. It’ll just take a breather after the seemingly long marathon.
I am closely monitoring WIN, SECB, and PIP. I’m also keeping an eye on those oil companies: OV and PXP.